Selected region — density plot
Select a region on the map to show the yield distribution
Historical performance of the seasonal yield forecast
30-year hindcasts (1994-2023) evaluated at lead times of 0-2 months before sowing. Skill metrics include CRPSS, RPSS, Spearman correlation, and ROC--AUC for below- and above-normal yield events, shown as spatial maps and summary plots per crop and country.
The FIS yield forecast tool fills a gap between hazard monitoring systems (e.g. ASAP, GEOGLAM Crop Monitor, TAMSAT-ALERT) and food-security outlooks (e.g. FEWS NET). Existing systems describe current conditions or qualitative anomalies. FIS provides quantitative, crop-specific probabilistic yield forecasts issued months before harvest, supporting short-term adaptation decisions across the food supply chain.
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How to use the Yield Forecast tool
Guidance on selecting crop, country, and administrative level, reading the yield anomaly distribution (forecast ensemble vs. climatological reference); and interpreting the skill overlay. Skill is assessed relative to a climatological benchmark — positive skill means the forecast is more informative than a no-skill tercile forecast.
FIS fills a gap between hazard monitoring systems (e.g. ASAP, GEOGLAM Crop Monitor, TAMSAT-ALERT) and food-security outlooks (e.g. FEWS NET). Existing systems describe current conditions or qualitative anomalies; FIS provides quantitative, crop-specific probabilistic yield forecasts issued months before harvest, supporting short-term adaptation decisions across the food supply chain.
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